It’s actually pretty rare that some of the year’s best movies and performances get nominated for anything; in this regard, this year’s awards leave something to root for. This is a year in which, win or lose, wild young Hollywood—in the persons of David Fincher, Darren Aronofsky, David O. Russell, and the remarkable young actors in their movies—is getting noticed.
Pauline Kael famously commented, after the 1972 Presidential election, “I live in a rather special world. I only know one person who voted for Nixon. Where they are I don’t know. They’re outside my ken. But sometimes when I’m in a theater I can feel them.” So it is with the people who are going to vote for “The King’s Speech” for Best Picture; I don’t know anyone who feels that way about the movie, but plenty of them must be working in, or have worked in, the movie business, and their tastes and interests—which, in this case, cohere with those of a significant number of viewers—make themselves felt throughout the industry. Putting our own preferences aside, the awards, in suggesting the industry’s image of itself, are the one way that the industry as a whole asserts its preferences in (some) distinction from the box-office results.
My ballot—not of my preferences but of my predictions—is below, with my picks in italics, along with some annotations. The Oscars’ past performance makes me pessimistic, but, in reality, the quiet celebration—in a year of nominations for a handful of films and performances of real originality and real distinction—has already started.
Best Picture
“Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“Inception”
“The Kids Are All Right”
“The King’s Speech”
“127 Hours”
“The Social Network”
“Toy Story 3”
“True Grit”
“Winter’s Bone”
“The Social Network” thoroughly deserves the award; based on the Academy’s record, that fact alone suffices to bet against it. It’s divisive in a way that “The King’s Speech” isn’t (but should be). British monarchs are to the big screen what kittens are to the computer screen.
Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan”
David O. Russell, “The Fighter”
Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech”
David Fincher, “The Social Network”
Joel and Ethan Coen, “True Grit”
I don’t want to believe that the Academy could find Tom Hooper’s work superior to David Fincher’s. I suspect that there’s a recent groundswell of support for Darren Aronofsky, who, working on a surprisingly low budget in “Black Swan,” confected an exhilarating and smart visual feast; it’s a remarkable film that—something important to Oscar voters—is a big box-office success, but Fincher’s achievement, at a virtually molecular level of cinematic composition, won’t be denied.
Best Actor
Javier Bardem, “Biutiful”
Jeff Bridges, “True Grit”
Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network”
Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
James Franco, “127 Hours”
Jesse Eisenberg’s performance in “The Social Network” is astonishing: it’s classical in its gestural precision (David Bordwell did a magnificent post recently to prove the point) yet modern in its convergence of persona and role. Academy voters don’t consider this to be acting; theatre seems, to them, acting, and all the more so if it’s done with an English accent—and in a royal role.
Best Actress
Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”
Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”
Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Michelle Williams, “Blue Valentine”
Tough one. If asked a month ago, I’d have said Annette Bening with no hesitation, as a sort of career-achievement award, Jeff Bridges-style. And what I said about Eisenberg holds equally true for Natalie Portman in “Black Swan” (theirs were the year’s two best performances). Portman deserves it, and the ongoing theatrical success of Aronofsky’s movie helps her.
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
John Hawkes, “Winter’s Bone”
Jeremy Renner, “The Town”
Mark Ruffalo, “The Kids Are All Right”
Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”
Five worthies; there are probably many who would like to give the award to Renner as compensation for not winning last year with “The Hurt Locker,” but Christian Bale’s performance in “The Fighter” is no mere hyperactive showiness—the expression in his eyes is as memorable as his energy.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, “The Fighter”
Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech”
Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”
Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”
Jacki Weaver, “Animal Kingdom”
With her self-funded ad campaign, Melissa Leo may have made herself look desperate; Jacki Weaver’s turn in the Australian crime-family drama “Animal Kingdom” could win on the basis of a single scene, a little thing she does with her eyebrows, but I doubt it.
Best Animated Feature Film
“How to Train Your Dragon”
“Illusionist”
“Toy Story 3”
The best-picture nomination of “Toy Story 3” suggests its pride of place.
Best Foreign Film
Mexico—“Biutiful”
Greece—“Dogtooth”
Denmark—“In a Better World”
Canada—“Incendies”
Algeria—“Outside the Law”
The Danish and Canadian nominees are yet unreleased in New York, which, as a friend said, gives them an advantage. Both are “political”; judging from the trailers, “Incendies” seems both more polished and more action-oriented.
Best Original Screenplay
“Another Year”
“The Fighter”
“Inception”
“The Kids Are All Right”
“The King’s Speech”
“The Fighter” gets to its subject from surprising angles, but those who liked “The King’s Speech” will probably also like its script.
Best Adapted Screenplay
“127 Hours”
“The Social Network”
“Toy Story 3”
“True Grit”
“Winter’s Bone”
Not only is the construction of “The Social Network” masterly, but Aaron Sorkin’s take on Mark Zuckerberg—which is both more critical and less admiring than David Fincher’s—is the one that those who are put off by the movie can live with.
Best Art Direction
“Alice in Wonderland”
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I”
“Inception”
“The King’s Speech”
“True Grit”
The candied fancy of “Alice in Wonderland” will come in behind the phantasmagorical realism of “Inception.”
Best Costume Design
“Alice in Wonderland”
“I Am Love”
“The King’s Speech”
“The Tempest”
“True Grit”
“I Am Love,” because people want to wear those clothes.
Best Original Song
“Coming Home”—“Country Strong”
“I See the Light”—“Tangled”
“If I Rise”—“127 Hours”
“We Belong Together”—“Toy Story 3”
Hard to resist Randy Newman, but Alan Menken’s ballad, sung by Mandy Moore, has an amazingly high tearjerking quotient.
Best Original Score
“How to Train Your Dragon”—John Powell
“Inception”—Hans Zimmer
“The King’s Speech”—Alexandre Desplat
“127 Hours”—A. R. Rahman
“The Social Network”—Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
If the Academy voters weren’t of an average age of fifty-seven, Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross would deservedly win for “The Social Network,” Hans Zimmer’s score for “Inception,” like everything else about the movie, is big. Alexandre Desplat hasn’t won an Oscar yet, and “The King’s Speech” needs his music.
Best Documentary
“Exit Through the Gift Shop”
“Gasland”
“Inside Job”
“Restrepo”
“Waste Land”
If the vote had been held six months ago, “Inside Job” couldn’t have lost, but the Dow is above 12,000, and Banksy’s game of hide-and-seek is the best viral campaign a movie could have.
Best Film Editing
“Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“The King’s Speech”
“127 Hours”
“The Social Network”
Much of the drama of “Black Swan” derives from the shock of a few cuts; its editor, Andrew Weisblum, deserves the award, but the editor of “The King’s Speech,” Tariq Anwar, had to do more with less. I’m giving the Academy some credit here for seeing the movies with their eyes.
Best Cinematography
“Black Swan”—Matthew Libatique
“Inception”—Wally Pfister
“The King’s Speech”—Danny Cohen
“The Social Network”—Jeff Cronenweth
“True Grit”—Roger Deakins
The fact that “Black Swan” was made on a spartan budget should suffice to get the award for Matthew Libatique, though of course Jeff Cronenweth created an original, dramatically critical look for “The Social Network,” one that’s absolutely inseparable from David Fincher’s directorial conception. That’s why Roger Deakins will win, for “True Grit.” It’s also a career-achievement award. (Though the fact that Wally Pfister, as I recently learned, filmed many of the effects of “Inception” as live-action stunts may explain why he won the American Society of Cinematographers’ award last week.)
Best Makeup
“Barney’s Version”
“The Way Back”
“The Wolfman”
Only one of the three films is in the realm of fantasy (though “La Vie en Rose” did win in 2007, but Marion Cotillard, who wore the makeup, also won for Best Actress).
Best Sound Editing
“Inception”
“Toy Story 3”
“TRON: Legacy”
“True Grit”
“Unstoppable”
The entire soundtrack of “Toy Story 3” had to be pieced together, and it was seamless; it’s just technique, but it’s still impressive.
Best Sound Mixing
“Inception”
“The King’s Speech”
“Salt”
“The Social Network”
“True Grit”
“The Social Network” runs, in part, on the contrasts in its sonic environments; again, it deserves the award, but the sound world of “Inception” is as gargantuan as its visual one.
Best Visual Effects
“Alice in Wonderland”
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1”
“Hereafter”
“Inception”
“Iron Man 2”
“Inception” will win because of the magnitude of the spectacle.
Best Documentary (Short Subject)
“Killing in the Name”
“Poster Girl”
“Strangers No More”
“Sun Comes Up”
“The Warriors of Qiugang”
“Poster Girl,” about a young woman veteran of the Iraq war who returned home traumatized, opposed to the war, angered by her use in a recruiting poster, frustrated by her battle with the V.A. to have her disability acknowledged, struggling for self-expression, and ready for social action, hits powerfully home.
Best Visual Short Film (Animated)
“Day & Night”
“The Gruffalo”
“Let’s Pollute”
“The Lost Thing”
“Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)”
“Day & Night,” which played as a short before “Toy Story 3,” is clever, sweet, and unusually simple. “The Gruffalo” is impressive—like a calling-card for a studio job or even a sketch for a feature—but it’s not distinctive.
Best Short Film (Action)
“The Confession”
“The Crush”
“God of Love”
“Na Wewe”
“Wish 143”
Whether student films in fact or merely in tone, these five eager-to-sell skits are all wearying to watch. “God of Love” has a scintilla of wit; “Na Wewe” hits a political nerve but turns on a moment of utter, vulgar silliness; “The Crush” tugs heartstrings in a blatant way.
See a slide show of our coverage of this year’s Best Picture nominees.
