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Tuesday assorted links
2. My interview with Diario Financiero (Chilean, in Spanish).
3. The AGI Chronicles, a book in the works, I have high hopes.
4. Shruti Rajagopalan named to the Project Syndicate 30 Forward Thinkers list.
5. Max Romeo, RIP, one song by him.
6. Circle is launching a new, stablecoin-based payments and remittance network.
7. My Niskanen podcast with Matt Grossman on building a science of progress.
8. Herbert Gans, RIP (NYT).
Congratulations to the 2025 John Bates Clark Medalist Stefanie Stantcheva
Awesome choice, she is one of my favorite economists, and she is also a super-nice person. Here is the report and list of winners, here are previous mentions on MR.
Deregulation suggestions
If you have ideas for cutting regulations, the US government wants to hear from you! This could be important. Provide details on the exact regulation in the CFR.
My debate with Dani Rodrik about tariffs and free trade
This occurred in Knoxville, you can watch it here. Lots of fun, and p.s. I am more of a free trader than he is. We did have some disagreements.
Is this a lot or a little?
“The Effect of Deactivating Facebook and Instagram on Users’ Emotional State” — by Hunt Alcott, et.al.
We estimate the effect of social media deactivation on users’ emotional state in two large randomized experiments before the 2020 U.S. election. People who deactivated Facebook for the six weeks before the election reported a 0.060 standard deviation improvement in an index of happiness, depression, and anxiety, relative to controls who deactivated for just the first of those six weeks. People who deactivated Instagram for those six weeks reported a 0.041 standard deviation improvement relative to controls. Exploratory analysis suggests the Facebook effect is driven by people over 35, while the Instagram effect is driven by women under 25.
What is wrong with the simple model that Facebook and Instagram allow you to achieve some very practical objectives, such as staying in touch with friends or expressing your opinions, at the cost of only a very modest annoyance (which to be clear existed in earlier modes of communication as well)?
Here is also a new paper on phone app usage in the classroom, by Billur Aksoy, Lester R. Lusher, and Scott E. Carrell:
Phone usage in the classroom has been linked to worsened academic outcomes. We present findings from a field experiment conducted at a large public university in partnership with an app marketed as a soft commitment device that provides incentives to reduce phone use in the classroom. We find that app usage led to improvements in classroom focus, attendance, and overall academic satisfaction. Analysis of time spent outside the classroom suggests a potential substitution effect: students using the app allocated less time to study, particularly on campus. Overall, though statistically insignificant, we find improvements in transcript grades associated with app usage.
Again NBER. I just do not see the compelling case for the apocalyptic interpretations here.
Long-Run Effects of Trade Wars
This short note shows that accounting for capital adjustment is critical when analyzing the long-run effects of trade wars on real wages and consumption. The reason is that trade wars increase the relative price between investment goods and labor by taxing imported investment goods and their inputs. This price shift depresses capital demand, shrinks the long-run capital stock, and pushes down consumption and real wages compared to scenarios when capital is fixed. We illustrate this mechanism by studying recent US tariffs using a dynamic quantitative trade model. When the capital stock is allowed to adjust, long-run consumption and wage responses are both larger and more negative. With capital adjustment, U.S. consumption can fall by 2.6%, compared to 0.6% when capital is held fixed, as in a static model. That is, capital stock adjustment emerges as a dominant driver of long-run outcomes, more important than the standard mechanisms from static trade models — terms-of-trade effects and misallocation of production across countries.
That is from a new NBER working paper by David Baqaee and Hannes Malmberg. Bravo to the authors for producing this result so quickly. And…as a side note…other forms of taxing capital can be bad too! Really. A number of people have spent the last twenty years tying themselves into knots on this question.
Monday assorted links
1. I find this illustrative, and also very, very naive. Here is a related query. I think this crowd is bad at modeling social systems and macro systems more generally. That is an intrinsically thing to do, but I would keep that in mind when reading “rationalist” analyses.
2. Yale sells $6 billion of its portfolio.
3. Strawberries in Senegal (NYT). And maybe the Straussians won’t like the new Maimonides translation?
4. The nuclear-powered flying hotel?
5. “Texas schools nix lesson over Virginia state flag’s exposed breast. The Roman goddess Virtus has been on the state flag since 1861, but the banner has only featured her bare breast since the early 20th century.” And: “A case of early 20th-century gender confusion led to the breast baring in the first place. In 1901, Secretary of the Commonwealth D.Q. Eggleston complained that Virtus “looked more like a man than a woman and wanted to correct it. He instructed designers to add the breast to clarify her sex,” the Virginian-Pilot reported in a 2023 deep dive into how Virginia wound up with the only state flag boasting an exposed nipple.”
6. Ethan Mollick on AGI. And resistance to the term AGI and its attainment. A good piece, with a cameo by Duchamp.
“Growth is getting harder to find, not ideas”
Here is the thread, here is the paper:
Relatively flat US output growth versus rising numbers of US researchers is often interpreted as evidence that “ideas are getting harder to find.” We build a new 46-year panel tracking the universe of U.S. firms’ patenting to investigate the micro underpinnings of this claim, separately examining the relationships between research inputs and ideas (patents) versus ideas and growth. Over our sample period, we find that researchers’ patenting productivity is increasing, there is little evidence of any secular decline in high-quality patenting common to all firms, and the link between patents and growth is present, differs by type of idea, and is fairly stable. On the other hand, we find strong evidence of secular decreases in output unrelated to patenting, suggesting an important role for other factors. Together, these results invite renewed empirical and theoretical attention to the impact of ideas on growth. To that end, our patent-firm bridge, which will be available to researchers with approved access, is used to produce new, public-use statistics on the Business Dynamics of Patenting Firms (BDS-PF).
By Teresa C. Fort, Nathan Goldschlag, Jack Liang, Peter K. Schott, and Nikolas Zolas. Via Basil Halperin.
Sunday assorted links
1. The Druid critique of progress (check out the guy’s bio).
2. Have researchers discovered (created?) a new colour?
4. How are Chinese robots doing in races with humans? (WSJ)
5. The Wax and Wane of Greatest Common Factor Islam. A New Jersey tale.
6. Arrow on the BBC, not a Monty Python skit.
7. Video, further data from the Navy. 30 minutes.
8. “The most interesting facet of the series involves the Lakers and their continuing effort to incorporate Dončić. Despite some awesome individual games, his numbers as a Laker are down pretty sharply from Dallas, and L.A.’s stats with him and LeBron James together aren’t imposing (just a plus-2.0 net rating).” NYT link here. And here is the o3 model on Houston vs. Golden State. This is why Ringer.com is shifting more and more to podcasts for its NBA coverage.
Our non-eggcellent regulations
Germany, Italy, Poland and Sweden are among the nations the U.S. Department of Agriculture approached to address the shortage brought on by a bird flu outbreak, according to European industry groups.
But supplying Americans with eggs would be complicated for foreign producers — but not because of political tensions over the myriad import tariffs President Donald Trump has imposed or threatened to impose on his nation’s top trading partners.
Even if they were eager to share, European countries don’t have many surplus eggs because of their own avian flu outbreaks and the growing domestic demand ahead of Easter.
One of the biggest obstacles, however, is the approach the United States takes to preventing salmonella contamination. U.S. food safety regulations require fresh eggs to be sanitized and refrigerated before they reach shoppers; in the European Union, safety standards call for Grade A eggs to be sold unwashed and without extended chilling.
Here is the full story, via Rich Dewey. So no, American scientists will not be moving to Europe — their eggs are too dangerous. And yes it is Germany too:
It is common in parts of Europe, for example, for consumers to buy eggs that still have feathers and chicken poop stuck to them.
Here is Patrick Collison, comparing the virtues of America to the virtues of Europe. I do not mind that he left out the chicken poop, for me it is a sign of authenticity. As for eggs, the best ones I ever had were in Chile.
My history with philosophy
At the same time I started reading economics, at age 13, I also was reading philosophy. I lived in Hillsdale, New Jersey, but River Vale had a better public library for those topics, so I would ride my bike there periodically and take out books (I also learned about Thelonious Monk and Miles Davis by bringing home scratched LPs).
Most of all, I was drawn to the Great Books series, most of all the philosophy in there. I figured I should read all of them. So of course I started with the Dialogues of Plato, which occupied my attention for a long time to come. Aristotle was boring to me, though at the time (and still) I felt he was more correct than Plato.
I also, from the beginning, never bought the argument that Socrates was the mouthpiece of Plato. In my early view (and still), Plato was the real genius, and he upgraded the second-rate Socrates to a smarter figure, mostly to make the dialogues better. The dialogic nature of Plato shows is true genius, because any single point of view you might find in there is quite untenable.
My favorite dialogues were the classic ones, such as Crito, Apology, Phaedo, and Symposium. Parmenides was a special obsession, though reader beware. It seemed fundamental and super-important. Timaeus intrigued me, as did Phaedrus, but I found them difficult. I appreciated The Republic only much later, most of all after reading the Allan Bloom introduction to the Chicago edition. My least favorite was Laws.
The other major event was buying a philosophy textbook by John Hospers (yes, if you are wondering that is the same John Hospers who wrote all that gay porn under a pseudonym). I think I bought this one in NYC rather than taking it out of the library. It explained the basic history of “early modern philosophy” running through Descartes, Locke, Berkeley, Hume, and Kant, and that fascinated me. So I decided I should be reading all those people and I did. Berkeley and Hume were the most fun. I already could see, from my concomitant economics reading, that Kant could not think at the margin.
Other early philosophy readings, in high school, were Popper, Nietzsche, and Doseoyevsky, at the time considering Karamazov a kind of philosophy book. Some Sartre, and whatever else I could find in the library. Lots of libertarian philosophy, such as Lysander Spooner’s critique of social contract theories of the state. I also read a number of books on atheism, such as by Antony Flew and George Smith, and a good deal of C.S. Lewis, such as God in the Dock. Arthur Koestler on the ghost in the machine. William James on free will. Various 1960s and 1970s screeds, many of which were on the margins of philosophy. Robert Pirsig bored me, not rigorous enough, etc., but I imbibed many such “works of the time.” They nonetheless helped to define the topic for me, as did my readings in science fiction. If I was reading Popper’s Poverty of Historicism, and Theory and History by Mises, I also was thinking of Isaac Asimov’s Foundation trilogy.
For a brief while I considered becoming a philosopher, though I decided that the economist path was better and far more practical, and also more useful to the world.
I kept on reading philosophy through my undergraduate years. The biggest earthquake was reading Quine. All of a sudden I was seeing a very different approach to what social science propositions and economic models were supposed to mean. (I never had been satisfied with Friedman, Samuelson, or the Austrians on ecoomic methodology.) For a long time I thought I would write a 100-page essay “Hayek and Quine,” but I never did. Nonetheless some radical new doors were opened for me, most of all a certain kind of freedom in intellectual interpretation. I also was influenced a good deal by reading Olaf Stapledon’s Last and First Men/Starmaker novels, feeding into my speculative bent.
I didn’t do much with philosophy classes, though in graduate school at Harvard I sat in on Hilary Putnam’s philosophy of language class (with my friend Kroszner). That was one of the very best classes I ever had, maybe the best. At Harvard I also got to know Nozick a bit, and of course he was extraordinarily impressive. At that time I also studied Goethe and German romanticism closely, and never felt major allergies toward the Continental approaches.
One day at Harvard, in 1984, I walked into Harvard Book Store and saw a copy of Parfit’s Reasons and Persons, which had just come out. I hadn’t known of Parfit before, but immediately decided I had to buy and read the book. I was hooked, and spent years working on those problems, including for part of my dissertation, which was hardly advisable from a job market point of view. Like Quine, that too changed my life and worldview. “Quine and Parfit” would be an interesting essay too.
When I took my first job at UC Irvine, I hung out with some of the philosophers there, including the excellent Alan Nelson and also Gregory Kavka, with whom I co-authored a bit. Greg and I became very good friends, and his early death was a great tragedy. I also enjoyed my periodic chats with David Gordon, a non-academic philosopher who lives in Los Angeles and the best-read philosopher I have met.
In the late 1980s I met Derek Parfit, and ended up becoming Derek’s only co-author, on the social discount rate. The full story there is told in Dave Edmonds’s excellent biography of Parfit, so I won’t repeat it here. These posts are for secrets! I will add that Derek struck me as the most philosophical person I ever have met, the most truly committed to philosophy as a method and a way of life. That to me is still more important than any particular thing he wrote. Your writings and your person are closely related, but they also are two separate things. Not enough philosophers today give sufficient thought to who they are.
After the collaboration with Parfit, he wrote me a letter and basically offered to bring me into his group at Oxford (under what terms was not clear). That felt like a dead end to me, plus a big cut in lifetime income, and so I did not pursue the opportunity.
I ended up with four articles in the philosophical equivalent of the “top five” journals in economics. I also was pleased and honored when Peter Singer invited me to present my paper “Policing Nature” to his philosophy group at Princeton. I think of my books The Age of the Infovore and Stubborn Attachments as more philosophy than anything else, though synthetic of course.
I have continued to read philosophy over the years. Next on my list is the new translation of Maimonides, which on first glance seems like a big improvement. However I read much less philosophy in refereed journals than I used to. Frankly, I think most of it is not very philosophical and also not very interesting. It is not about real problems, but rather tries to carve out a small piece that is both marginally noticeable by an academic referee and also defensible, again to an academic referee. That strikes me as a bad way to do philosophy. It worked pretty well say in the 1960s, but these days those margins are just too small.
Most professional philosphers seem to me more like bureaucrats than philosophers. They simply do not embody philosophic ideals, either in their writings or in their persons. Most of all I am inclined to reread philosophic classics, read something “Continental,” or read philosophic works that to most people would not count as philosophy at all. An excellent tweet on AI can be extraordinarily philosophical in the best sense of the term, and like most of the greatest philosophy from the past it is not restricted by the canons of refereed journals. Maxims have a long and noble history in philosophy.
My notion of who is a philosopher has broadened extensively over the years. I think of Patrick Collison, Camille Paglia, and the best Ross Douthat columns (among many other examples, let’s toss in the best Matt Y. sentences as well, and the best Peter Thiel observations), not to mention some art and architecture and music critics, as some of the best and most important philosophy of our time. The best philosophy of Agnes Callard (NYT) does not look like formal philosophy at all. I know it is hard for many of you to make this mental shift, but revisit how Kierkegaaard and Schopenhauer wrote and you might find it possible. And of course the very greatest philosophers of our time are the people who are building and learning how to use the quality LLMs.
A simple rule of thumb is that if no one is writing you, and telling you that you changed their lives, you probably are not a philosopher. You cannot expect such feedback in mathematical logic, or early in your career, but still it is not a bad place to start for judging this issue.
Looking back, I now see myself as having chosen the path of philosophy more than economics. I view myself as a philosopher who knows a lot of economics and who writes about economics (among other things). I am comfortable with that redefinition of self, and it makes my career and my time allocation easier to understand.
And now to go try that new Maimonides edition…
Mexico fact of the day
Mexico [is]…the current hub of AI server manufacturing. Of the servers imported by the U.S.—including AI and non-AI servers—about 70% come from Mexico, according to a report by Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs.
More of this, please. Here is the full WSJ piece, via the excellent Kevin Lewis.
The Ross Douthat manifesto?
Not exactly my views, but well worth reading as a whole. Here is one excerpt:
…much of this extinction will seem voluntary. In a normal evolutionary bottleneck, the goal is surviving some immediate physical threat — a plague or famine, an earthquake, flood or meteor strike. The bottleneck of the digital age is different: The new era is killing us softly, by drawing people out of the real and into the virtual, distracting us from the activities that sustain ordinary life, and finally making existence at a human scale seem obsolete.
In this environment, survival will depend on intentionality and intensity. Any aspect of human culture that people assume gets transmitted automatically, without too much conscious deliberation, is what online slang calls NGMI — not going to make it.
Languages will disappear, churches will perish, political ideas will evanesce, art forms will vanish, the capacity to read and write and figure mathematically will wither, and the reproduction of the species will fail — except among people who are deliberate and self-conscious and a little bit fanatical about ensuring that the things they love are carried forward.
And this:
And while this description may sound like pessimism, it’s intended as an exhortation, a call to recognize what’s happening and resist it, to fight for a future where human things and human beings survive and flourish. It’s an appeal for intentionality against drift, for purpose against passivity — and ultimately for life itself against extinction.
Do read the whole thing (NYT).
England and Wales fact of the day
A recent survey, commissioned by the Bible Society and conducted by YouGov, showed 16 per cent of those aged 18 to 24 in England and Wales said they attended church at least monthly, significantly up from 4 per cent in 2018.
Here is more from the FT. Addendum: The above quotation from the FT is slightly misleading. Both numbers are the percentages for those who self-report as Christians.
Saturday assorted links
1. How tariffs affect trade deficits.
2. How many “ghost branches” of humanity are there?
3. There is actual humor in this NYT piece on the pro-natalism movement. “With” or “at,” you can debate, but not all readers will align with the NYT perspective. Bryan has the best line. The correction is funny too. I guess the “ghost branches” of humanity were not pro-natalist enough?
4. Should the moon be a computer?
5. Running 80,000 parallel referendums at all times — is that what they are doing?
6. The Network School Fellowship.
7. “Huge rabbit rescued from kill farm is now therapy bunny, drives mini truck.” (WaPo)